CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T21:57Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 82.25%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.75 - 7.125
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -64317.80 hour(s)
Difference: 1.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy